The paper industry may "come from winter to spring".

  Recently, leading paper companies such as Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, and Nine Dragons Paper have issued price increase letters. From mid-February, the price of white cardboard will increase by 100 yuan/ton. This price increase is the first concentrated price increase of white cardboard after half a year.

  The reporter called Chenming Paper, and a staff member of the company said: "At present, the price of white cardboard is at a historically low level, and paper companies are generally in a state of loss, so the company has a demand for price increases. As the domestic economy gradually improves, paper The downstream demand for finished products will gradually recover."

  Another leading paper company revealed in recent exchanges with institutions that the bidding volume for teaching materials in the fourth quarter of last year and this spring has indeed increased significantly. "We have analyzed that in the past six years, prices have basically been raised from February to May, and it is expected that prices will continue to increase on a large scale this year." The paper company said.

  "In February this year, the spot price of domestic pulp was lowered. As the terminal consumption bottomed out, the prices of paper products including white cardboard and cultural paper began to rise." A senior paper researcher at a leading securities company told reporters, "With the The more obvious destocking, the paper industry has ushered in the double benefits of a gradual recovery in demand and a release of cost pressures, and it is expected that paper companies will see a significant profit recovery in the second quarter of this year."

  Leading paper companies collectively adjust prices

  As packaging and printing companies resume work one after another, the paper market has restarted, and many paper companies have issued price increase letters.

  On February 2, Jiangsu Kaisheng Paper announced that starting from February 5, the price of its gray cardboard would be raised by 50 yuan/ton, starting the "first shot" of post-holiday price increases.

  On the same day, Bohui Paper stated in the price increase notice sent to customers that due to the increase in operating costs and various factors, the production cost of the factory has increased significantly. It is planned to start from February 15, 2023. The product is raised by 100 yuan/ton (including tax) on the basis of the current price.

  Another paper giant, Jinguang Group, issued a price adjustment notice on February 3, saying: "Affected by rising operating costs and various factors, our company will target Ningbo Asia Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Jinguang from February 15, 2023. The price of all products produced by Gui Pulp Paper Co., Ltd. has increased by 100 yuan/ton (including tax)."

  In addition to white cardboard, the prices of other types of paper will also rise.

  Some insiders in the paper industry told reporters that Sun Paper has also raised the existing price of all coated and uncoated cultural paper by 100 yuan/ton since February 15th. Continue to raise 100 yuan / ton on the basis of the price. In addition, starting from February 20, the company's household paper shipment price will also increase by 200 yuan/ton.

  Collective "Waterloo" last year

  Since the beginning of this year, the 2022 annual performance forecast released by a number of listed companies in the paper industry shows that the overall performance of paper companies last year was under pressure, and their profits dropped sharply.

  At the end of January, Chenming Paper released its performance forecast for 2022. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 160 million to 200 million yuan attributable to the parent company, a decrease of 90.32% to 92.25% compared with the same period last year; the net profit attributable to the parent company is -188 million yuan to -148 million.

  Chenming Paper stated that during the reporting period, the domestic market demand was insufficient, and the sales volume of machine-made paper decreased year-on-year, which affected the performance of profits. At the same time, due to the impact of rising prices of wood chips, chemicals, raw coal and other raw materials and energy prices, production costs increased significantly year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in gross profit margin.

  Bohui Paper expects to achieve a net profit of 221 million to 290 million yuan in 2022, a decrease of 83% to 87% over the same period last year.

  Regarding the sharp decline in performance, Bohui Paper explained that in 2022, the supply chain of the industrial chain will not be smooth, the spillover impact of geopolitical conflicts will continue, and the risk of economic downturn will increase. The cost of the company's main raw and auxiliary materials imported pulp and wood chips increased compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, due to insufficient demand in the consumer market, the company's main product prices fell year-on-year. based on the above factors, the profit level in 2022 will drop year-on-year. In addition, the performance of companies such as Shanying International and Minfeng Special Paper is also quite sluggish.

  Many Hong Kong-listed paper companies also performed poorly last year. For example, on the evening of February 13th, Lee & Man Paper issued a profit warning. It is expected that the profit in 2022 will drop by about 60% compared with 2021, mainly due to the decline in the group's marginal profit.

  Paper industry or bid farewell to "winter"

  The reporter learned from a number of paper companies and industry researchers that after many years of "cold winter", with the gradual recovery of domestic market demand in 2023 and the release of superimposed cost pressures, the paper industry is expected to bid farewell to the "cold winter" and usher in the "dawn". .

  "The paper industry is cyclical, and the prosperity is closely related to the national economy." The above-mentioned Chenming Paper staff told reporters, "Compared with last year, my country's economy will gradually improve this year. Paper is not only a consumable but also a necessity. , the downstream demand will gradually increase.”

  Chenming Paper stated in the performance forecast that with the gradual recovery of domestic demand in 2023 and the effective control of the cost side, the company's profitability is expected to be effectively improved.

  Shanying International said that at present, the recovery of consumption has not yet been fully reflected. However, compared with last year, whether it is from the perspective of cost or consumption recovery, the recovery of the entire industry is relatively certain this year.

  Many institutions are full of confidence in the recovery of the paper industry market in 2023. GF Securities released a research report saying that from the perspective of cost, in 2023, the new production capacity of Chile's Arauco and Finland's UPM pulp manufacturers will be implemented one after another, the certainty of pulp prices will decline, and downstream profits are expected to improve. The data shows that as of February 10, domestic and foreign pulp prices have dropped again. The average price of domestic softwood pulp has dropped by more than 80 yuan/ton week-on-week, and that of hardwood pulp has dropped by more than 100 yuan/ton.

  The gradual easing of pressure on the cost side has also led to an improvement in profitability. According to data from Shanghai Steel Union, as of February 10, the gross profit per ton of white cardboard was 54 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 40 yuan/ton from the previous month. In terms of cultural paper, the gross profit per ton of offset paper is 294 yuan/ton, which is 200 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of this year; the gross profit per ton of coated paper is 157 yuan/ton, which is 202.5 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the year.

  "The prices of imported wood pulp and wood chips may continue to decline this year, coupled with exchange rate changes, the cost of paper companies is expected to gradually fall. With the arrival of low-priced imported wood pulp in Hong Kong, the cost may usher in a significant drop in the second quarter." A private equity firm in Shanghai The fund manager told reporters, "From the perspective of paper prices, the recovery of domestic downstream demand this year may drive paper prices upward in the first half of the year. If cost improvements and paper price increases are realized at the same time, the paper industry's profitability is expected to recover significantly in the first half of 2023."