On October 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced my country's economic performance in the first three quarters. Preliminary calculations show that the GDP in the first three quarters was 94,974.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. In September, most production demand indicators improved, market expectations improved, and positive factors promoting economic recovery increased.
Major economic indicators showed positive changes in September
"In the first three quarters, the national economy was generally stable and making progress." Sheng Laiyun analyzed the outstanding characteristics of the economic operation in the first three quarters from three aspects.
——From a cumulative perspective, the general tone of "stable" economic operation has not changed.
In terms of growth rate, GDP increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, 4.7% in the second quarter, and 4.6% in the third quarter. The fluctuation range of these indicators is not large, and they are close to the expected target of "around 5%".
Employment prices were generally stable. In terms of employment, in the first three quarters, the national average urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, which was the same as in the first half of the year. In terms of prices, the consumer price index rose by an average of 0.3% in the first three quarters, an increase of 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. In addition, the international balance of payments is basically balanced.
"Judging from the four major macro indicators of growth, employment, inflation, and balance of payments, the economy has been operating generally smoothly in the first three quarters, and the general tone of stable operation has not changed," Sheng Laiyun said.
——The general trend of optimizing economic structure, improving quality, and making steady progress in high-quality development has not changed.
In terms of innovation and development, in the first three quarters, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.0% year-on-year; the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.1%, 3.3 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industries above designated size. In terms of coordinated development, the industrial structure, demand structure, and regional structure continue to be optimized. In terms of green development, production and consumption of wind power, nuclear power, photovoltaic power generation, etc. have maintained rapid growth. In terms of open development, despite the complex and ever-changing international situation, in the first three quarters, the delivery value of industrial exports increased by 4.1%, and the export of full-scale goods increased by 6.2%. In terms of shared development, in the first three quarters, the growth rate of residents' income was slightly higher than the GDP growth rate, people's livelihood protection was strong and effective, and new results were achieved in food security and energy supply.
——The national economy showed positive changes in September, with most indicators improving marginally and the economy showing a bottoming out and stabilizing trend.
The accelerated rollout of a package of incremental policies has greatly enhanced market confidence and improved business expectations. On the one hand, industrial production and service industry production both showed marginal improvement. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the industrial growth rate stopped falling and rebounded for the first time after four months of decline; the service industry production index increased by 5.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher than in August. On the other hand, consumption and investment have seen positive changes. Consumption potential continues to be released. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.2% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than in August. From January to September, fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year, which was the same as from January to August. The investment growth rate stopped falling and stabilized for the first time after declining for many consecutive months.
Stock policies and incremental policies are playing a positive role
Since the beginning of this year, a series of policies have been introduced, including promoting large-scale equipment updates and replacing old consumer goods with new ones, adjusting and optimizing the real estate market, and issuing and utilizing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds. Sheng Lai used "five effective" methods to summarize the policy effects.
Effectively unleashed the potential of domestic demand. Under the influence of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment by units above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year. In September, the retail sales of automobiles, home appliances, office supplies, home furnishings and other products involving the trade-in policy were even better. obvious. In September, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies in units above designated size increased by 20.5%, 12.3%, and 10.0% respectively; the retail sales of automobiles and furniture all increased by 0.4%, and the growth rate From negative to positive.
Effectively promote the production of related industries and products. Driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies, in the first three quarters, the added value of ship and related device manufacturing, radio and television equipment manufacturing, and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 20.5%, 19.8%, and 12.9% year-on-year respectively; food manufacturing machinery, special equipment for agricultural product processing, and packaging The output of special equipment products increased by 38.1%, 34.6%, and 11.8% respectively; the output of new energy vehicles increased by 33.8%, the output of related charging piles increased by 57.2%, and household refrigerators, air conditioners, smart TVs and other products also achieved rapid growth.
Effectively promoted the stabilization and recovery of the economy. Major indicators such as industry, service industry, investment and retail sales have all seen positive changes. Many production demand indicators improved marginally in September, and the economy has bottomed out and stabilized.
Effectively improved market expectations. Macroeconomic policies continue to intensify, effectively boosting market confidence. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from August. The overall level of economic prosperity has rebounded. A business survey of 100,000 large enterprises conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the proportion of industrial enterprises above designated size that are expected to have optimistic operating conditions in the fourth quarter increased by 1.3 percentage points month-on-month and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year.
Effectively boosted market activity. For example, the declines in real estate sales area, sales amount, investment, etc. all narrowed.
"We hope that all localities will promptly issue corresponding details and implement various policies and measures that have been introduced so that these policies can unleash greater potential and consolidate the economic stabilization and recovery," Sheng Laiyun said.
Confidence in achieving the expected goal of “around 5%” is increasing
How do you view my country’s economic trends in the fourth quarter? "We believe that the favorable conditions for economic stabilization and recovery are increasing, and confidence in achieving the expected goal of 'around 5%' is increasing." Sheng Laiyun said.
GDP grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving the full-year target. Positive changes in economic performance in September enhanced confidence in development. "As long as there is confidence, companies will be willing to invest and consumers will be willing to consume, and some expected indicators have shown positive changes." Sheng Laiyun said.
The combined force of policies will enhance the momentum of economic recovery. "Whether it is for investment, consumption or industrial development, policies will have a positive effect. The policies that have been introduced are very valuable, and there is still a lot of room." Sheng Laiyun said that aggregate policies, industrial policies and structural reform policies They will cooperate with each other and produce synergy.
Some leading indicators show the trend of economic stabilization and recovery and positive changes. Compared with late September, among the 50 important means of production prices monitored in early October, 33 increased and 3 remained unchanged. The price rebound is conducive to the improvement of corporate operating conditions. Changes in the prices of some means of production, electricity consumption in early October, and consumption during the National Day holiday all indicate that the economy will stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter with a high probability.
"Comprehensive judgment shows that the economy in the fourth quarter will continue the stabilizing recovery trend that occurred in September. We are confident in achieving the full-year target." Sheng Laiyun said.
